New Hampshire Housing Market Still Better Than Most
As it turns out, the sky may not be falling.
At least not in the New Hampshire housing market.
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As it turns out, the sky may not be falling.
At least not in the New Hampshire housing market.
Read the rest of this entry »
The New Hampshire housing market will see foreclosures continue to increase into 2008 as subprime mortgages continue to fail, a study released yesterday said.
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Foreclosures in Rockingham County have more than doubled in the first half of this year, as officials cite predatory mortgage lending and a slower New Hampshire housing market as the cause.
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New Hampshire’s banking commissioner says the mortgage meltdown sweeping the country shows it’s time to allow the state to start licensing loan “originators.”
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The New Hampshire housing market is experiencing a soft landing, according to those with an eye on the real estate field.
As home mortgage loan foreclosures increase nationally, the Northeast has not been as hard hit as other parts of the country.
But the region is far from immune.
While delinquency rates on residential New Hampshire mortgages rose during the fourth quarter of 2006, they remained below the national average and were the third-lowest in New England.
Total mortgage delinquencies in New Hampshire increased by 48 basis points to 4.37 percent in fourth quarter 2006, up from 3.89 percent in the third quarter of 2006.
Despite a jump in New Hampshire mortgage delinquencies, the state remains below the national rate of 4.95 percent rate and behind the New England average of 4.46 percent.
While all four major mortgage types saw increases in delinquencies during the fourth quarter, increases in subprime loan delinquencies - those bearing high interest rates and given to borrowers with poor credit histories - were the most notable in New Hampshire and across the nation.
Mortgage delinquencies on bad credit home loans in New Hampshire increased by 156 basis points to 14.45 percent during the fourth quarter of 2006, up from 12.89 percent during the third quarter. Third-quarter numbers showed a 114-basis point jump.
Nationally, delinquencies on subprime (bad credit mortgage loans) increased by 77 basis points to 13.33 percent in the fourth quarter.
Nationally, foreclosures on subprime home loans during the fourth quarter were 3.74 percent, up 7 basis points from the previous quarter.
Delinquencies on prime rate loans were at 2.63 percent, up 34 basis points from the 2.29 percent reported for third quarter 2006. Foreclosures on the prime loans issued during the fourth quarter were 0.31 percent, up slightly from the 0.28 percent reported in third quarter.
Delinquencies on FHA loans increased by 83 basis points to 12.10 percent during the fourth quarter of 2006, up from 11.27 percent.
Delinquencies on VA loans were up 66 basis points to 6.97 percent, compared to 6.31 percent in the third quarter.
SOURCE: New Hampshire Business Review
Despite reassurance from some Realtors that the New Hampshire housing market is healthy, others believe it provides an excellent backdrop for mortgage fraud.
Below, The Nashua Telegraph explains some of the typical factors that open the door to fraud:
• Buyers trying to get into the market before home mortgage rates climb much higher are tempted to cheat to get what they want;
• Financially strapped homeowners with soaring adjustable rate mortgages who may be enticed to bend the rules to get out of a bad situation;
• Desperate sellers unable to find ready and financially able buyers who are lured by fraudsters who offer them a way out.
As long as the market stays in the doldrums, mortgage fraud will continue to thrive, say experts.
The extent of mortgage fraud isn’t fully known; the FBI estimates that lenders lost about $1.5 billion to the crime in 2006, but that’s only the crimes reported by federally insured agencies. Investigators predict the number will increase as fraudsters prey on people with adjustable rate mortgages now facing foreclosure as their rates reset and they can no longer afford their payments.
One common type is borrower fraud: A person lies on a New Hampshire mortgage application about income, the source of the down payment or length of employment. With the high cost of housing and the popularity of stated-income loans, it can be tempting for a person who is desperate to get into a house to fudge the numbers to make the loan work.
Much of the borrower fraud is being tacitly encouraged by real estate professionals who should know better, says Miami-based real estate attorney Oscar Rivera.
Too often, he says, mortgage loan originators look at a loan application and suggest to the borrower that a few doctored or falsified documents might qualify them for a better program. This is federal mortgage fraud.
Sometimes the real estate agent or the lender is the culprit. They’re both paid on commission and may be struggling financially because of the real estate downturn, says Patricia Yamato, president of Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers. But the bottom line is that if the borrower signs a mortgage application and knows the information on it isn’t true, everyone is responsible.
Homeowners who are having financial trouble need to be very careful of cold calls or letters from people who purport to be able to get rid of their debt, says Matt Schwartz, a New Jersey-based CPA and certified fraud examiner.
“Where consumers have to be really careful is if someone comes to them, says, ‘I know you’re having trouble, I can help you out, sign these papers,’ ” Schwartz says. “They’re getting you to sign over your property to them and they sell it.”
One final word to borrowers who are tempted to lie on mortgage applications: You’re not doing yourself any favors trying to qualify for a house you can’t really afford. Remember: there’s probably another mortgage out there that you would have qualified for.
“Some people may think the only way they can get into a property is to BS the bank all the way through,” says David Reed, president of CD Reed Mortgage Bankers of Austin, Texas. “There are so many programs out there. I’ve never met a borrower who couldn’t get a mortgage.”
What’s the future of New Hampshire housing market?
According to The Seacoast Board of Realtors, it’s rather bright. The group has concluded that while the real estate market has changed in the last year, it is still going strong.
That announcement was made at the board’s first annual “State of the Seacoast” press conference on Friday, Feb. 9, at the Seacoast Board offices at Pease International Tradeport. John Rice, president of the SBR, led the panel that spoke about the state of the current New Hampshire mortgage market and specifically what it means to the Seacoast area.
“Given the shift in the market over the last 12 months, we felt it was important to get the word out to both our fellow Realtors and the media that the real estate market in the Seacoast is strong; different than a year ago, but still strong,” said Rice. “[Single-family home] sales are up 18 percent in nine sample Seacoast towns over the November-January time frame a year ago.”
“With 66 single-family listings under $300,000 and 99 condo listings under $200,000 - coupled with near record low [mortgage interest rates] - we are seeing a very positive affordability picture,” Rice said. “The market may be setting itself up for a strong spring.”
The four-person panel also included Dr. Ross Gittell, James R. Carter, a professor of Management at UNH; Peter Francese, founder of American Demographics magazine and well-respected demographics trends analyst; and Bonnie Guevin, president of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors.
“New Hampshire leads the New England states when it comes to the economy,” said Gittell “and contrary to public opinion we are not overbuilt.’”
Francese stressed that although, the markets are in good shape right now, “Our population is shrinking — particularly in the 35-49 age group. We need to work together to ensure that New Hampshire continues to thrive and that means providing affordable housing so that young educated professionals can afford to live here.”
Overall, the Seacoast real estate market is in line with the rest of the industry.
“Statewide, we saw a decline of 1.5 percent last year in real estate prices. In the Seacoast area, it was 1.47 percent, just slightly below the rest of the state,” said Guevin. “What we have been experiencing is a shift in a market that needed correcting. Now that has happened and it is business as usual.”
SOURCE: The Portsmouth Herald
Have you thought about buying a house recently?
If so, you may have experienced hesitation because you weren’t sure if the prices, which have been dropping, might be even lower next year.
Millions of Americans, and according to the New Hampshire Business Review, the Granite State is no exception. This is because houses have become more affordable - but also because consumers now believe that the price is not likely to go much lower.
That phenomenon is worth noting as it relates to the New Hampshire housing market. Many buyers — particularly those not in a hurry — are hesitating because they believe that prices are likely to be lower in the future.
This represents a significant shift in the real estate psychology of home buyers from a year or two ago, when most of them thought home prices would keep rising.
The key question is when will this hesitation-leaning consumer sentiment regarding housing start to turn into a now-is-the-time-to-buy attitude?
The issue of affordability is a complex one. Prices may not have reached their absolute lowest point, but they are significantly more affordable than they were a year ago. Whereas New Hampshire mortgage rates are about where they were 12 months ago, the real estate climate is different.
One way to measure housing affordability is to calculate the ratio between employee wages and home prices. The ratio between those two numbers was remarkably flat through most of the 1990s. In 1990, the median home price was 5.3 times the average annual private employment wage.
By 1992, that ratio had come down to 4.1, and even less in the Seacoast region of N.H. and Maine, with only slight variations it remained there until 2000, when the home price-to-wage ratio was still 4.1.
From 1992-2000, home prices, which increased 41.5 percent, virtually tracked wages, which rose 43.8 percent. But then in the first half of this decade, home prices jumped from 4.1-6.1 times average wages. The reason: Median home prices rose 74.8 percent from 2000-2005, while average wages increased just 16.4 percent.
Two important notes: Interest rates were at historic lows during the first half of this decade, so demand for home mortgage loans went through the roof. Second, vacation-home buyers in New Hampshire were far more abundant than they had been during the 1990s.
Unless there are significant interest rate cuts in the near future and mortgage rates fell to historic lows, it would be logical to expect home prices to track much closer to wage increases as this decade draws to a conclusion. But there are other forces at work.
We don’t know what will happen with regard to second-home buyers. There is some indication that rising equity prices in the stock market may fuel some additional buying of second or even third homes in New Hampshire, as well as fuel Vermont and Maine mortgage demand.
One additional factor is that older buyers with substantial equity are a larger fraction of home owners in New England than at any time in the region’s past. That makes it more likely that prices will track at a somewhat higher ratio to wages than they did a decade ago.
Perhaps more potential home buyers would think it was time to buy if the median home price-to-wages ratio here were to gradually return to 5.7 or what it was in 2003.
If next year’s wages were to rise at the same rate as they did last year (3.7 percent), that would mean in ‘07 the average wage would be $44,000 and the median home price would be $250,800, or about where it was in 2005.
The bottom line is that if average wages continue to rise and second-home buyers remain in the picture, then the consumers’ perception is likely to be that home prices are stabilizing and it is time to buy.