Northeast Arkansas a Buyers Market?
When other areas of the US seem to be having trouble with their housing market, there maybe good news for Northeast Arkansas.
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When other areas of the US seem to be having trouble with their housing market, there maybe good news for Northeast Arkansas.
Read the rest of this entry »
Reports of rising home mortgage foreclosure rates and falling home sales across the nation can tarnish a housing market’s reputation.
Arkansas home sales fell slightly more than 2 percent in January compared to the same month a year ago, but that decline was less severe than in previous months, the Arkansas Realtors Association reported Monday.
In December 2006, sales fell 14.8 percent over the same month in 2005.
Combined with increased sales, the average price of a home in the Natural State fell less than 0.5 percent in January, reflecting a stable Arkansas housing market that is nowhere near bubble conditions.
It also means it’s a great time to consider applying for a home loan and buying real estate in this attractive, reasonably-priced Southern state.
“From our point of view, that suggests there is downward pressure on home prices and consumers are responding,” Realtors association spokesman Ethan Nobles said. “In other words, this is a pretty good time to buy a home.”
Nationally, home sales dipped 4.3 percent compared to a year ago despite low mortgage costs.
A five-year run-up in home prices pushed ownership costs higher than many buyers could afford, causing the subsequent modest declines in prices. As inventory gets absorbed, experts believe the market will return to normalcy.
Monthly sales rose 1.7 percent over January 2006 in Pulaski County, the state’s top selling market last month at 304 units sold.
Looking at the region as a whole, Benton, Washington, Sebastian and Garland counties rounded out the top-five counties in terms of monthly home sales.
Even with Arkansas mortgage costs near record lows, Benton County posted a decline of almost 20 percent, while nearby Garland County sales slipped by 16.7 percent.
SOURCE: Arkansas News
January figures released by the Arkansas Realtors Association on Monday show a drop in Benton County home sales below 2006 numbers, a continuation of a 14-month trend, while average prices indicate a decline, hinting at potential changes in the Arkansas housing market.
“We’re getting back to a more normal market,” said Ethan Nobles, a spokesman for the association.
Benton County home buyers purchased 261 homes in January, down 19.69 percent from 325 homes in January 2006. On a statewide level, buyers purchased 1,928 homes, a 2.38 percent drop from 1,975.
Home sales in Benton County have showed a decrease over previous years’ sales since November 2005. Realtors have long defended the figures, noting that 2005 was a record year in the Arkansas mortgage market and that a longer history of sales puts the drop into perspective, Nobles said.
“You’ve got to consider that the housing market has run white-hot for so long,” he said. “Eventually, that changes. ”
Nobles noted that some of the state’s biggest selling markets seem to be springing back, showing gains over previous years. Washington County home sales were at 170 in January 2007, up 8.28 percent from 157 in 2006.
In what can seem like a counterintuitive trend, as Benton County sales have decreased, the average price of homes sold has continued to rise. This month’s figures break that trend.
The January figures show a 5.85 percent drop in average prices of homes, down to $ 186,506 from $ 198,104 in January 2006. This is the first drop in county prices since the association began compiling its statewide report in July 2005. Statewide, average January prices dropped 0.41 percent, down to $ 149,043 from $ 148,435.
Nobles hopes the lower housing prices will increase sales in the county, which seems to be in keeping with a statewide trend.
On the supply side, northwest Arkansas is still dealing with an oversupply of new housing, but the problem seems to be showing early signs of correction as mortgage activity picks up.
The fourth quarter residential Skyline Report, released in February by researchers at the University of Arkansas, showed that the number of complete but unoccupied houses in Washington and Benton counties fell 13.7 percent from 2,956 to 2, 551 in the fourth quarter of 2006, the first decrease in homes entering the market in more than a year.
SOURCE: The Benton County Daily Record
There was optimism within the Arkansas housing market after sales dropped in October.
We wonder if the same attitude prevails now that final figures for real estate sales and building growth were down for all of 2006, as released by the Arkansas Realtors Association in Bella Vista.
Last year, there were 1, 165 housing units sold in Bella Vista compared to 1, 536 in 2005, a 24 percent drop. With prices rising, Arkansas mortgage applicants chose to wait on the sidelines for most of the year.
Benton County as a whole experienced less of a drop with 4, 856 housing units sold in 2006 compared to 5, 557 in 2005 - only a 13 percent change - and average home prices reached $ 194, 713 overall.
Bentonville saw 877 units sold last year, just a 4 percent drop from 2005, while the average home price reached $ 234, 893.
Those figures are down from 2005, a year which many in the real estate business consider was the best year on record for sales, said Ethan Nobles, director of media relations with the ARA.
“Washington and Benton counties are down. There’s no doubt, ” Nobles said. “However, the average prices are also going down in northwest Arkansas. That is an encouraging sign. ”
A buying boom in this area in recent years led builders to flood the market, many times with larger sized houses that carried higher prices.
“There was a time when those homes sold extremely well. I still don’t think we are in a buyer’s market yet, ” Nobles said.
Builders are reacting to the market change with a shift toward more affordable housing while offering incentives to buyers such as price adjustments, attractive home warranties and home additions such as privacy fences.
“I think we have a great potential for affordable housing in this area, ” said Larry Kelly with Kelly and Associates Realty. “ With an absorption rate of the current supply projected to be 14 to 18 months, we’re about seven to eight months into that supply. It’s really not out of whack. I think our market is still healthy, and I expect an increase in activity starting in the spring. ”
The number of people moving into northwest Arkansas and the number of jobs created continue to increase, so the demand hasn’t diminished. It probably has more to do with the decision-making of the buyers, the time they choose to apply for mortgage loans in the area.
“It doesn’t seem to matter what political party is in power. Folks are reluctant to make decisions during election years. I’ve noted it my entire career, ” Kelly said.
Despite the downturn in the housing market, Benton County continues to be the second largest county in the state as far as housing units sold, second only to Pulaski County’s 5, 918 units sold last year. The average price for a home in Benton County was the highest in the state in 2006.
A record five-year run in home construction and real estate prices in Northwest Arkansas hit a wall starting in late August, according to the Morning News, and the slowdown was felt most among small businesses, banking and construction sectors of the local economy.
Kathy Deck, an economist with the University of Arkansas, said the downturn was consistent with a trend of declines the business of home builders - in 15 years, there has never been a bigger drop in the U.S.
Many economists and federal reports indicated that the end of the housing boom has taken a toll on the nation’s economy, reducing the economic growth to an annual rate of 2 percent - the slowest pace of the year.
Month after month news of declining home sales reported by the Arkansas Realtors Association was offset by optimism from builders and real estate agents.
That’s unit Bella Vista-based Betty’s Homes Inc. and its owners Robert and Betty Abercrombie, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, owing $10 million to local creditors and putting eight area banks and dozens of small businesses into jeopardy.
Rumors of cash flow problems and a glut of inventory in upscale single-family dwellings should force banks to look closely at their mortgage loan portfolios.
“It just amazes me that with all the solid data available to bankers and builders related to supply and demand that banks are still willing to loan and builders are still building. It will hit a wall,” said John Dominick, finance professor at the University of Arkansas.
While Arkansas mortgage demand has been tepid, and the housing pipeline remains clogged with an oversupply of unoccupied homes, reports show the overall number of building permits dropped more than 60 percent in the year-over-year quarter.
A November Arkansas Realtors report showed 2006 to be the third best year on record for area home sales, but 14 percent lower than in 2005.
The decline in Arkansas home sales has been widespread, as the hard times in home building and dropping home mortgage demand took its toll on many small-business owners who service the real estate sector.
A slumping number of jobs and a marked increase of slow and non-payments from several area builders prompted cut-backs and layoffs among small employers, from mortgage lenders to the companies supplying the building materials.
The number of liens filed by area sub-contractors against builders surged more than 50 percent in recent months, according to the court filings in both Benton and Washington counties.
October housing sales data released by the Arkansas Realtors Association last month showed a 20 percent drop in the number of Arkansas home sales compared to the previous year.
Pope County numbers showed the largest change, a 36 percent drop compared to October 2005, proof that perhaps the housing bubble has finally burst, according to the Russellville Courier-News.
Local real estate agents aren’t buying it.
“I wouldn’t be concerned that the area is going into a housing recession,” said Brad Neiman of Cliff Goodin and Associates. “Our company has sold more than we ever have this year.”
Rich Vander Leest, owner of Coldwell Banker in Russellville, said the key to the big picture is in comparing year-to-date sales numbers.
“Any one month can be really out of whack,” he said.
Last year was the best year on record for home sales in Arkansas, officials say. With a low cost of living and cheap mortgage loans, more residents found the means to buy homes in the Natural State. According to sales data from the Russellville Board of Realtors, 956 single family and mobile homes were sold during the period of January-October 2005. For the same period in 2006, sales totaled 964.
“It’s going to be a very good year by anybody’s measurement,” Vander Leest said.
Tabitha Davis of ReMax First agreed.
“This is the best year of my career,” she said.
Her total sales, including commercial property and land, are up 18 percent from last year. Area home prices have also increased. The average listing price went up from $101,360 to $108,984 this year. Four years ago, the average sales price for the area was $90,000.
New construction costs increase the price of new homes, which also has a positive effect on existing home prices.
Davis said the area’s slow, steady growth buffered the housing market from wild fluctuations. With Arkansas mortgage costs staying consistent for the most part, and without factors such as rampant investor activity or limited space, the area was shielded from a housing bubble, unlike a Chicago or New York would be.
As for the area’s overall economy, it does seem to be slowing, said Jeff Pipkin, president and CEO of the Russellville Chamber of Commerce.
“But there’s no reason for alarm,” he said. “The end of the year is always slower, and in an election year, it’s slower still. I’m still very excited about growth in Russellville.”
Economists at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock Economic Forecast Conference on Wednesday were more upbeat about the economy than one might expect, given the current slowdown.
THE GIST: There’s nothing great on the horizon, but there’s no recession, either.
Appearing in front of about 400 attendees, Mark Thompson, an economic forecaster with UALR’s Institute for Economic Advancement, said Arkansas’ economy has slowed similar to the national economy. He said slower growth will likely continue through the next couple of years.
The gross state product, similar to the national gross domestic product, has slowed from an annual growth rate of 6 percent in 2004 to 2.6 percent in 2005 to less than 1 percent in 2006, ArkansasBusiness.com reports.
The forecast for 2007 and 2008 is about 2 percent, which is below the long-run growth of 3 percent to 3.5 percent annually. Nominal GDP is expected to reach $100 billion in late 2008.
The housing market in the state has cooled from its 2004-05 levels, but levels are still above the previous five-year average. The housing bubble that’s being talked about nationally isn’t likely to affect Arkansas home loan demand, with the possible exception with high-end areas of W. Little Rock and northwest Arkansas.
It’s very early, experts say, but activity is very promising regarding the future of the Natural State’s economy. Inflation is still under control and the Federal Reserve will continue to take a wait-and-see attitude toward raising interest rates until the housing market settles down. That means good things for borrowers looking to take advantage of low mortgage rates.
Housing has had a huge drop-off across the U.S., mostly in single-family housing, although multi-family home construction has increased slightly.
What remains to be seen is how that sector will affect other businesses, such as furnishings, lawn products and home electronics. Home Depot, for instance, recently showed a drop in earnings for the third quarter, as home improvement loan demand and the need for materials lessen.
The home building slowdown will also affect not only real estate companies, but mortgage and title companies.
Arkansas home sales have dropped more than 22 percent in September compared with September 2005, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reported Thursday.
It was the seventh straight month that home sales have declined in the Natural State compared with last year, the Arkansas Realtors Association said, although the 22 percent drop-off is the biggest one-month fall this year. In the state’s five largest markets, declines ranging from 13-39 percent were reported.
The state figures are based on 30 Arkansas markets that report sales to the association and don’t include homes sold by owners without a Realtor.
There were almost 40 percent fewer homes sold last month compared with a year earlier in Benton County, the second-largest housing market in the state. The state’s largest market, Pulaski County, reported 13 percent fewer homes sold in September than in the same month a year ago.
The decline is due to mortgage rates, which are a little higher than the past few years, and a general sense of uneasiness when it comes to the real estate market. Many buyers, in Arkansas and beyond, are in more of a wait-and-see mode than in years past.
Analysts say that publicity about a potential housing bubble and the possibility that it will burst may be a contributing factor to the current slowdown. Until this year, Arkansas real estate generally had become more expensive since the start of the decade — though the increases were small compared to areas such as the California housing market.
“It’s all about consumer confidence. In this case, the media certainly exacerbates the issue, but the same thing was true [when sales were soaring]. There is a psychology to investing. When it is good, everybody is on the bandwagon. But when it starts to turn, a downward trend can be exacerbated by the [publicity],” said Kathy Deck, associate director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas.
Deck pointed out that home sales this year are being compared with the two best years for home sales in history. More homes were sold nationally last year than in any year before, breaking a record set in 2004.
Sales of new homes and housing starts were up almost 6 percent nationally in August, the Commerce Department said this week. But for the year, new residential construction still is off 18 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the Commerce Department.
Many aren’t worried, however. The Arkansas housing market is known for being less volatile than many large metropolitan markets nationally.
Randy Alexander, owner of McKay and Co. in Little Rock, said there is a slowdown due to increased mortgage loan cost and run-up in inventory, but doesn’t think there is a crisis in the Arkansas housing market.
“I think what is happening is that we’re probably taking a breather. The market still seems to have momentum in it, although it is not at the same pace of a few months ago,” Alexander said. “From a buyer’s perspective, mortgage rates are still low, and there is certainly plenty of inventory.”