Wait! Handful of Housing Markets Show Improvement

In the middle of a nationwide slump, a few housing markets have held their ground - and then some.

In the Seattle housing market, for example, the median home sale price was $380,200 during the first three months of 2007, according to the latest stats from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That’s a 12.3 percent year-over-year increase.

Ten other metro areas among the 156 markets covered by NAR also recorded double-digit, year-over-year price increases.

So what have they get that other markets don’t?

The main ingredient is a set of positive fundamentals, including strong job and population growth, which then fuel demand for houses from potential home mortgage loan applicants that remain silent in other regions.

In Seattle, many residents can find high-paying work in the tech industry in an area with an unemployment rate recently under 4 percent. A hot job market has drawn workers from outside, adding to housing demand.

Other factors also helped the double-digit markets percolate. In nearly all of the areas, home prices never overheated, remaining relatively low through the boom years. It’s easier to show outsized growth when you’re starting from a low base.

Of the 11 metro areas that grew in double-digits, Seattle was the only market where single family houses priced well above the $212,300 national median before the latest numbers.

Oregon mortgage holders in Salem had a 15.6 percent increase for the 12 months, which did bring it up to just over the national norm to $221,600, but all the other markets were substantially below it.

Another characteristic the double-digit performers shared was their relatively small size. Many were among the lowest in population of all the NAR’s 156 areas.

Farmington, New Mexico, where home prices appreciated 12 percent, has a population of just 125,000 in its metro area, which is fewer than some small, central-city neighborhoods in New York or Chicago.

Even the biggest cities on the list, Seattle, San Antonio and Oklahoma City, ranked only 15th, 29th and 45th among U.S. metro areas in population. Cumberland is 341st, Farmington is 292nd and Beaumont, Texas, where prices rose 16.5 percent, is 130th.

But even the strongest housing markets around the nation show hints of weakness that aren’t covered by NAR statistics.

According to Lennox Scott, of the John L. Scott Realty Company, one of the largest home sellers in the Pacific Northwest, the hottest Seattle neighborhoods are those closest to job centers.

“We see double the demand close in,” he said. “People don’t want the commute.”

The recent bad credit mortgage crisis has also significantly changed the types of homes being sold. Demand has fallen among credit-damaged and low-income buyers, who typically buy lower-priced houses.

Moreover, tougher lending standards also make it more difficult for marginal borrowers to purchase. In Seattle, Erik Hand, president of Response Mortgage Services, Scott’s lending arm, said, “We’re having a harder time getting first-time home buyers approved.”

SOURCE: CNN Money