California Mortgage Applicants, Take Note: Bargains Aplenty in East Bay
When Yelena Takhtamanova, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economist, began her 2007 forecast for the East Bay chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers, she said she hoped the audience could help her - she’s in the market for a house.
“There’s a lot of bargains out there. Buy now,” shot back Mike Tacconi, East Bay CAMB chapter president, to loud laughter.
Gallows humor by mortgage brokers? Maybe. The 2007 California housing market forecasts are a mixed bag, and no one seems to be sure the bottom has been hit.
Take Takhtamanova’s presentation.
She said housing demand nationwide may be stabilizing, with supply remaining high and new construction continuing to trend down. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s 2007 national forecast also predicts a strong labor market, gradually moderating core inflation and flat mortgage interest rates, but declining home prices could affect that outlook.
More from the housing forecast cornucopia:
- Alan Nevin, California Building Industry Association chief economist, forecasts housing starts of 155,000 to 170,000 this year, about the same as or slightly fewer than in 2006. That production level would exceed any year from 1991 to 2001.
- Foreclosures are up, DataQuick Information Systems reported. About 1,173 Alameda County homeowners received California mortgage default notices in the October through December period, up 157 percent from a year ago and 19 percent above the quarterly average of 984 since 1992.
Contra Costa County default notices totalled 1,511, up 179 percent from a year ago and 59 percent above the quarterly average of 951. Solano County showed a 163 percent increase in default notices last quarter to 781, with the quarterly average at 398.
- KB Home South Bay Inc. has seen a sales upsurge recently, during what is normally a slow period for builders: 95 in December, compared to 59 in December 2005, and 247 through Jan. 26, compared to 216 in the same period a year ago.
As California home prices remain low, there’s a good chance activity will pick up across the state. Until then, bargains will remain prodigious for hopeful owners.